Next Goal Live Predictions: How to Use In-Play Data for Smarter Bets
Erik AnderssonTo make money on next goal live predictions, you must watch the live match momentum and use betting exchanges. Live betting is now the most popular way to bet, and odds change very fast.
Quick Summary
To make money on next goal live predictions, you must watch the live match momentum and use betting exchanges. Live betting is now the most popular way to bet, and odds change very fast based on who has the ball. By using tools like Oddsmatcher and comparing bookmaker odds with betting exchanges, you can find great value or lock in risk-free profits.
What Are Next Goal Live Predictions?
Next goal markets ask a simple question: which team or player will score the next goal in the match? You can also bet on no goal if you think the match will end without another goal. Bookmakers update these odds constantly as the game is played.
Unlike pre-match betting, which uses historical data, live betting requires you to watch the current game. Odds change quickly based on ball possession, big chances, red cards, and the ticking clock.
Live Market Types
| Feature | Option 1 | Option 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Team Next Goal | Medium Volatility | Finding value when momentum shifts clearly toward one side. |
| Next Goalscorer | High Volatility | Speculative bets. High bookmaker margins make this harder to profit from long-term. |
| No Next Goal | Low/Medium Volatility | Late in the game when both teams are settling for a draw, or hedging existing positions. |
3 Live Metrics to Watch for Next Goal Predictions
To predict the next goal, you should not just guess. Look for these three clear signals during the match:
- Expected Goals (xG) and Dangerous Attacks: Watch the live stats. If a team has a sudden spike in 'Dangerous Attacks per minute' or their xG is rising fast, a goal is often coming. Look for sustained pressure over a 10-15 minute period.
- The 75-Minute Rule: Between the 75th and 90th minute, losing teams will push hard to score. This opens up the game. If the losing team needs a goal to avoid elimination, the chance of a late goal (for either team) goes up significantly.
- Warning Signs (Dead Games): Avoid betting if the game has many fouls, injuries, or if teams are just passing the ball slowly in defense. If the tempo is low, betting on 'no goal' might be the smarter choice.
The Data Behind In-Play Betting
To understand why live betting is popular, look at the data. According to a 2025 study by the European Gaming and Betting Association (EGBA), live betting now makes up 54% of all sports betting in Europe.
This big difference in margins is why smart bettors use exchanges. As the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) regularly highlights, understanding the true cost of a bet is a critical part of responsible gambling.
"Live betting is a game of information. Bookmakers use computers to change odds based on time and possession. But computers cannot see emotional momentum or sudden tactical changes. That human element is where you find value." — Dr. Henrik Larsson, Sports Analytics Researcher
When Do Next Goal Odds Offer Value?
Odds drop fast when a team is dominating or gets a big chance. Value appears when the market overreacts to short pressure, or underreacts to a big tactical change.
The key is to compare odds. Use Match View and live data to compare odds across traditional bookmakers and the betting exchange. If a bookmaker offers 2.50 on the home team to score next, but you can lay (bet against) that same outcome on the exchange at 2.52, you have found a great opportunity.
Why Professionals Use Exchanges (Not Bookmakers)
If you want to bet like a professional, you must stop relying solely on traditional bookmakers. Bookmakers build a high margin (often 6-8%) into their live odds and quickly restrict or limit players who win too much.
Professional bettors use betting exchanges instead. On an exchange, you bet against other players, not the house. This means better odds, no limits for winning players, and the ability to "lay" bets (bet against an outcome).
Bookmaker vs. Exchange Comparison
Traditional Bookmaker: 6-8% hidden margin, bans winning players, only allows you to back outcomes. BFB247 Exchange: Only 2.5% commission on winnings, no "Expert Fee" or restrictions for winners, allows both backing and laying with Betfair liquidity.
Over hundreds of bets, the difference between taking odds of 2.00 at a bookmaker versus 2.10 on an exchange is massive. You can learn exactly how to set this up and maximize your profits in our complete BFB247 Exchange Guide.
Combining Next Goal With Matched Betting
If you do matched betting, next goal markets are great because they settle fast. You can use free bets or reload offers during the game.
- Watch the game. Do not rely only on stats; seeing the game helps a lot.
- Compare back and lay odds. Use the Oddsmatcher to see if you can back with a bookmaker and lay on the exchange for a risk-free position.
- Calculate precisely. Always use a matched betting calculator to get your stakes right before you bet.
- Set a budget. Live markets move fast. Decide how much you will risk before the game starts. Always bet responsibly and seek support from BeGambleAware if needed.
Expert Advice
For volume betting, next goal is just one of many live markets. The same rules apply: track your turnover, calculate your margins, and account for exchange fees to know your true long-term value.
Frequently Asked Questions
QIs next goal betting profitable?
Yes, if you use an exchange to lay bets and manage your margins. Using only traditional bookmakers is hard because they take a very high margin (fee) on live bets.
QCan I use free bets on live next goal markets?
Yes. Next goal markets are perfect for matched betting because they settle fast. Place a back bet using your free bet at the bookmaker, and immediately lay the same outcome on an exchange to lock in profit.
QHow does VAR affect next goal predictions?
VAR (Video Assistant Referee) can pause betting markets. If you place a back bet but haven't laid it yet, a sudden VAR check can be risky. Try to place your back and lay bets as close together as possible during breaks in play.
QWhat is the difference between backing and laying a next goal?
Backing means you are betting that a team WILL score the next goal. Laying (which you can only do on an exchange) means you are betting that a team WILL NOT score the next goal.
QWhy do my live bets get rejected by the bookmaker?
Bookmakers use a delay (usually 5 to 10 seconds) on live bets to protect themselves. If a dangerous attack, goal, or red card happens during this delay, your bet will be rejected.
QDo professional bettors use traditional bookmakers for live betting?
Professionals only use bookmakers to extract free bets and bonuses. For regular live betting, they use betting exchanges like BFB247 to get better odds and avoid being restricted for winning.
Erik Andersson is a Stockholm-based Content & Marketing Specialist at Sharkbetting, focusing on the global gambling market, sportsbook trends, and clear, player-first betting guides. View full profile →
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